The Open Championship

The 142nd British Open Championships begins on Thursday at Muirfield on the east coast of Scotland and for the first time in a decent while, there is no obvious favourite.  The unique demands of Links golf means that any one of the entrants into golf’s oldest major championships has a chance of lifting the Claret Jug.  Conditions are such a huge factor in determining the outcome of The Open, more than at any other major.  The Links golfer has to adjust his ball-flight to counter the effects of the wind, be deadly accurate and also be prepared to use the contours of the course to his advantage.  Accuracy, especially off the tee will be absolutely imperative given that the rough at Muirfield this year is penal.

‘Lefty’ Phil Mickelson has thrown his hat into the ring with his victory at the weekend at the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart.  It was an impressive victory for a man who is to driving accuracy what Tiger Woods is to monogamy.  The Californian also has an enviable short game which can get him out of even the deepest spots of trouble and he will need it if he is to be victorious this week.  It would be a fool to discount him, but I am said fool and I just don’t think he has the requisite patience to conquer Muirfield’s testing nuances.

Britain’s newest major champion, Justin Rose will be hoping to add to his tally this week.  He has all the stats this season to suggest he can definitely be a contender:  13th in Driving accuracy on the PGA tour, 1st in sand saves with over 70% and 15th in Greens in Regulation.  He will have to equal those stats at least to have a chance of lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday.  I also don’t think he quite has the minerals to win round Muirfield – his putting isn’t consistent enough and since he burst onto the scene as a precocious teenager in 1998 at Royal Birkdale with a T4th placed finish as an amateur, he has failed to finish in the top-10.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Worksop’s Lee Westwood will have a very good week.  He has had a quiet 2013 thus far:  5 top-10 finishes; no victories but he is always there or thereabouts at the big tournaments and hardly ever has a shocker of a round.  His consistency especially off the tee will come in handy – he simply needs to have a hot two days with his putter, easier said than done of course but that’s all it will take for Westwood.  He has every shot in his armoury – he now needs to believe he can do it on the greens too and if he does, this might be the tournament for him.

What of the other contenders?  World number one Tiger Woods has been in pretty horrible form since winning the Players Championship in May.  You can never discount him, but I am going to, so obviously you can.  Similarly with Rory McIlroy; his form has been seriously mediocre in the past few months.  The Northern Irishman by his own admission does not overly enjoy playing on Links courses (which I find surprising for a man who has hit a 59 round Portrush) and I can see that attitude rearing its ugly features this week.  At the moment McIlroy’s swing is still too inconsistent.  Every round he hits at least two terrible shots that, at Muirfield, will be very expensive.  Masters winner Adam Scott is another who has had a lean time of it since his amazing victory in April.  The Australian came so close at Royal Lytham last year, only to be pipped by Ernie Els after some rather injudicious shots.  He comes into this tournament with no pressure but also no form so I can’t see him featuring on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

It is customary for me at every major tournament to tip Matt Kuchar to win but I am not going to this time (cue Open victory).  Although my heart doesn’t think he will, I want the matador Sergio Garcia to finally break his major duck.  He is the heir to Seve Ballesteros’ throne, a maverick who takes on shots no other player would even consider.  It has often been to the detriment of his results (e.g the 17th hole at this year’s Player’s Championship) but Sergio only knows one way to play – all-out attack.  When he gets it right it is a thing of beauty – Garcia with an iron in hand is like his compatriot Picasso wielding his paintbrush.  His opening 66 at the Masters is as close to perfection as you are ever likely to see on the golf course.  Unfortunately he is about as consistent as an incontinent after 10 pints and a vindaloo.  He has been adversely affected by the mindless comments he made about Tiger Woods at the BMW PGA in May but over on (sort of) home soil he will get more support from the galleries than across the pond.  If he is still knocking about at the weekend, anything can happen.

What about the defending champion?  Ernie Els has come to Muirfield a little under the radar which is exactly how he likes it.  He is in pretty good form too.  A victory at the BMW International Open was preceded by two top-10’s at the U.S Open and the BMW PGA at Wentworth.  He won his first Open Championship at Muirfield 11 years ago so he knows what it takes to win round this challenging course.  He also has the most aesthetically pleasing golf swing in the world.  If that isn’t enough to convince you to head down to the bookies straight away then I don’t what is.

So there you have it.  What is for certain is some lucky fellow will be holding the famous Claret Jug aloft on the 18th green on Sunday evening with a cheque for £950,000 in his back pocket.  What is also almost certain is that it will be none of the players I have mentioned in this article.  I have an uncanny knack of giving the kiss of death to any of my tips so here’s my advice: have a flutter on any of the players I haven’t tipped.  They’ll probably win.

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U.S Open Preview

On Thursday the U.S Open will get underway at the Merion Golf Club in Pennsylvania.  This charming gem of a course is the shortest U.S Open set-up for nearly a decade.  It has a wonderful mix of tricky short holes and testing long ones.  Of the four par threes, one is a miniscule 115 yards, the other three measure over 230 yards.  There are two par fours at over 500 yards, yet four that are under 400, and, in a refreshing twist, only two par fives (one over 600 yards).  This course is not just breeze for the longer hitters; far from it.  In fact it requires all the shots in the book (and possibly some that aren’t) to conquer its various challenges.  Here are some of the players who will be looking to lift the famous old trophy on Sunday evening.

 

Matt Kuchar (United States)

World Ranking: 4

Best U.S Open finish: T6th (2010)

 

Yes, I know I tipped him at the Masters and he didn’t really feature strongly but he has been on fire this season.  He hasn’t missed a cut all year and won on his most recent outing, The Memorial Tournament on the 2nd of June.  The week before that he was 2nd at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at the Colonial Country Club with all four rounds under 70.  The man is Mr Consistent and with his almost faultless short game (12th in the putting stats and 6th on sand saves) he is a real danger man this week.  One worry would be his driving which has not been exactly pinpoint (57% of fairways hit puts him 134th on the PGA tour) and with the fairways exceedingly narrow at the Merion Golf Club and the rough penal, he will need his long stick to be on top form to keep the ball in the short stuff.  Nevertheless, my tip to win.

 

Tiger Woods (United States)

World Ranking: 1

Best U.S Open finish: 1st (2000, ‘02, ’08)

 

8 starts this season, four victories, need I say more?  He made up for his (relatively) disappointing 4th place at the Masters by winning the Players Championship last month and the manner of his victory was like the Tiger of old; players (namely Sergio Garcia) wilting under the relentless pressure of the great man.  His most recent outing at the Memorial Tournament was an unmitigated disaster (he finished at +8 in 65th place) so all has not been going totally to plan.  He is still without a major since last his last victory in this tournament five years ago and that will be playing on his mind.  This is not necessarily the sort of course that will suit him.  His best chance of victory will be if he takes mostly irons off the tee for position (like he did at The Open at Hoylake in 2006).  If he can get it onto the green in regulation then he is nigh on unstoppable this season on the dancefloor (1st in the putting stats).  He will be hard to stop if he can get on a roll.

 

Adam Scott (Australia)

World Ranking: 3

Best U.S Open finish: T15th (2012)

 

The likeable Australian finally broke his major duck (in the golfing sense) by winning this year’s Masters in spectacular fashion by beating ‘The Duck,’ Angel Cabrera, in a play-off.  This should give Scott the confidence to challenge regularly in the big tournaments.  Two top-20 finishes after his triumph in April is a solid enough return.  I can’t see him winning this week because he doesn’t quite have the requisite short-game, although a top-10 finish is not beyond him.  He may have to win another major fairly sharpish seeing as the anchor putter, which Scott uses, will be outlawed at the beginning of 2016.

 

Sergio Garcia (Spain)

World Ranking: 15

Best U.S Open finish: T3rd (2005)

 

The Spaniard has been up to his usual mercurial tricks this season.  He tore up Augusta on the first day of the Masters before making it look like a minefield not 24 hours later for his second round.  His mental fallibility then reared its ugly head last month at the Players Championship firstly in his public spat with Tiger Woods, secondly by squandering the lead with two holes to play, scoring quadruple bogey and double bogey to leave him languishing down in 8th place.  Garcia’s talent has never been in doubt.  It is his mental strength (or lack of) which has prevented him from winning major championships.  He himself has said he will never win a major because of his mental weakness which is also almost certainly the reason for his inconsistent putting which has blighted his career (although this season he has improved significantly).  He has had more top-10’s than Cliff Richard, yet the number one spot continues to elude him.  Garcia’s results this season have not been as spectacular as his golf but if he can string four rounds together (a big IF), he could be a serious contender.

 

Graeme McDowell (Northern Ireland)

World Ranking: 8

Best U.S Open finish: 1st (2010)

 

The Northern Irishman has been in great form this season, winning twice and grabbing a further three top-10 finishes.  He has previous too in the U.S Open, memorably triumphing at Pebble Beach in 2010 and a 2nd place last year at the Olympic Club.  His recent form has declined slightly – two missed cuts in his last two outings.  Let’s hope he raises his game for the Merion Club because he’s the only British player with a realistic chance of victory.

 

Matteo Manassero (Italy)

World Ranking: 25

Best U.S Open finish: T46th (2012)

 

The Italian is the form player in the European game right now.  His victory at the PGA Championship at Wentworth last month was followed by a 4th place at the Nordea Masters – proving that he is ready for the big time.  He already has 4 career wins to his name but it is easy to forget he is only 20 years of age.  The youthful Manassero is yet to translate his European form across the Atlantic – his highest finish in any tournament across the pond is 23rd so victory may be beyond him this week.  However with the Merion course set up as it is this week he may have a chance of a top-10 finish.  He also comes into the tournament a little under the radar and under little pressure.  Leads the European challenge.

 

So those are some of the contenders.  I can’t see Phil Mickelson in the frame (despite his 2nd place finish at the weekend) because he’s too erratic off the tee and his putting is about as consistent as Oasis’s drummer.  Rory McIlroy is in pretty ropey form too – like Garcia he can’t seem to string four solid rounds together.  Luke Donald has the short game to do well round Merion but he needs to improve on his PGA Tour Green in Regulation position of 149th.  Lee Westwood has the opposite problem – a brilliant long game but an infamously average short game.  However he may be in with a shout because of the rather inclement weather in Pennsylvania this week which has softened up the greens, making scoring infinitely more attractive.  Whatever the weather, the golf should provide enough thrills and spills (or birdies and eagles) to stop you dozing off to sleep on Sunday night.